Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 27.551309 30.520731 33.896476 38.069546 43.164349 49.286265 57.368578
2025-05-25 22.951374 26.645551 31.206825 37.427038 45.996917 57.933468 77.011512
2025-06-01 19.999183 23.981438 29.195902 36.856528 48.511631 67.074408 103.304691
2025-06-08 17.916728 22.001662 27.592388 36.303632 50.713222 76.685611 139.440024
2025-06-15 16.381911 20.495659 26.328054 35.870717 52.856406 87.305488 192.958577
2025-06-22 15.227609 19.351394 25.376060 35.665497 55.262325 99.989069 282.738740
2025-06-29 14.164971 18.210113 24.254094 34.922947 56.375944 110.609809 411.483760
2025-07-06 13.776510 18.006717 24.536941 36.648052 63.168823 143.172136 1095.839833
2025-07-13 13.046797 17.212031 23.762094 36.265139 65.109477 163.186812 3151.079720
2025-07-20 12.515141 16.673356 23.342677 36.479108 68.625786 195.436984 NaN
2025-07-27 12.059823 16.214202 23.002115 36.781316 72.550872 239.092198 NaN
2025-08-03 11.592388 15.698832 22.508458 36.674881 75.328891 285.815573 NaN
2025-08-10 11.094626 15.109240 21.843950 36.129581 76.730929 331.619362 NaN
2025-08-17 10.729835 14.714274 21.495295 36.237507 80.430379 422.816880 NaN
2025-08-24 10.351651 14.273218 21.023554 35.991594 82.889961 527.448265 NaN
2025-08-31 9.985797 13.831414 20.514341 35.583105 84.654925 654.537468 NaN
2025-09-07 9.654424 13.429559 20.049199 35.215675 86.509366 837.617195 NaN
2025-09-14 9.370135 13.092545 19.681833 35.038237 89.172445 1166.581786 NaN
2025-09-21 9.048037 12.675066 19.130714 34.325852 89.232415 1451.470407 NaN
2025-09-28 8.998241 12.723460 19.487463 36.005847 101.680483 7172.617876 NaN
2025-10-05 8.745803 12.405047 19.093899 35.635607 103.688305 29716.574914 NaN
2025-10-12 8.564284 12.202950 18.919890 35.844194 109.204756 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 8.401041 12.025323 18.782632 36.138057 115.672641 NaN NaN